Influence of climate change on future scenarios on Eucalyptus plantations

Abstract

The genus Eucalyptus presents a large commercial potential and it is the arboreal species most planted in Brazil. Perspectives of climate change in the future projections of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicate that productivity losses may occur in diverse agricultural and forestry crops. The objective of this study was to determine the zones apt for planting of eucalyptus based on relief and climate data for current and future scenarios. The study was developed in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, and normal climatological data was obtained from rain gauges. The water balance was calculated by the Tornthwaite and Mather methodology. Temperature was estimated using data of latitude and altitude. Data from the SRTM were used to obtain the altitude and zone of agricultural mechanization, based on slopes. For interpolation of the data, the inverse square distance method was used. The future data were estimated by the HADCM3 model of the IPCC in scenarios: A (pessimistic) and B (optimistic) for the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080. It is estimated that the zones suitable for planting are reduced in both scenarios, diminishing by 71.1% and 82% for scenarios A and B, respectively in the year 2080. The water deficit acted as a limiting factor for planting. Due to the complexity of interactions of biotic and abiotic factors, new capability studies should be performed in the context of climate change.