DETECTION OF POINTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES, A BAYESIAN APPROACH IN CLIMATIC DATA OF THE CITY OF SÃO PAULO: Points of climatic changes, a Bayesian approach

Emerson Barili; Jorge Alberto Achcar

doi:10.4215/rm2026.e25012

DETECTION OF POINTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES, A BAYESIAN APPROACH IN CLIMATIC DATA OF THE CITY OF SÃO PAULO

Points of climatic changes, a Bayesian approach

Authors

Emerson Barili State University of Maringá Author http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8210-6746
Jorge Alberto Achcar University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto,São Paulo, Brazil Author http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9868-9453

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2026.e25012

Abstract

In this study, we introduce a statistical model applied to climate change data (annual mean temperature and annual mean rain precipitation for a long period) obtained from a climate station in São Paulo City Brazil. The assumed model used in the data analysis consists of an autoregressive times series (AR) model which represents a type of random process. A Bayesian approach using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods is considered to get the inferences of interest. The main goal of the study is to have a fitted statistical model to get good predictions for annual mean temperature and annual mean rain precipitation and also to be used to identify the time of possible climate change-points.

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Published

2026-06-05

Issue

Vol. 25 (2026)

Section

Artigos

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