PREDICTIVE MODELING APPLIED TO POTENTIAL SOIL EROSION RISK MAPPING IN THE WESTERN AMAZON

Abstract

The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss due to hydro-erosive processes consists of methods that simplify reality to predict future behavior based on the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. Thus, the objective of the current analysis is to predict susceptibility to soil loss and map areas with the potential risk of erosion using the principles of Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The hydrographic sub-basin of the Sete Voltas River (330 km2), Rondônia, Brazil, was defined as the experimental area. Models were obtained using 100 sample units and 14 predictor parameters. Susceptibility was mapped based on five reference classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. ANN obtained an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.808 and global precision of 79.2%, and the BLR model showed an AUC of 0.888 and global precision of 77%. Potentially susceptible areas represent 57.71% and 54.80% of the area for BLR and ANN models, respectively. The greatest potential risks are verified in places with no vegetation cover associated with agricultural practices. The technique proved to be effective, with adequate precision and the advantage of being less time-consuming and expensive than other methods. In addition, it offers a tool that can help natural resource managers to reduce environmental impacts.

Keywords: Binary Logistic Regression; Artificial Neural Network; Erosion Susceptibility.