A NEW SOLVENCY PREDICTION MODEL FOR COMPANIES IN THE REAL ESTATE SECTOR

Authors

  • Pablo Pulhese Perim Fucape Business School
  • Danilo Soares Monte-Mor Fucape Business School
  • Marco Aurélio dos Santos Sanfins Universidade Federal Fluminense - UFF
  • Neyla Tardin Fucape Business School

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.v14i2.823

Keywords:

Real Estate Sector, Insolvency risk, Monte Carlo Simulation.

Abstract

This study aims to propose a model that estimates insolvency risk for real estate companies through an approach that considers, in addition to the assets' quality, the mismatches between assets and liabilities on time, as well as different risks within the sector. Through Monte Carlo simulations and hypothetical examples, we show that the proposed model was able to capture mismatches between assets and liabilities and the effects of changes in the risks of credit, liquidity and engineering. In addition, our results suggest that the absence of a harmonious distribution of assets and liabilities leads to increasing insolvency risks even when the present value of total assets is greater than the present value of total liabilities.

Author Biographies

Pablo Pulhese Perim, Fucape Business School

Mestre em Ciências Contábeis

Danilo Soares Monte-Mor, Fucape Business School

Doutor em Ciências Contábeis e Administração

Marco Aurélio dos Santos Sanfins, Universidade Federal Fluminense - UFF

Doutor em Estatística

Neyla Tardin, Fucape Business School

Doutoranda em Ciências Contábeis e Administração

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Published

2016-10-26

How to Cite

Perim, P. P., Monte-Mor, D. S., Sanfins, M. A. dos S., & Tardin, N. (2016). A NEW SOLVENCY PREDICTION MODEL FOR COMPANIES IN THE REAL ESTATE SECTOR. Contextus - Contemporary Journal of Economics and Management, 14(2), 143–169. https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.v14i2.823

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 2: mai/ago 2016

Section

Articles

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